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Nomura Cuts China¡¯s Growth Forecasts on Slow Covid Reopening
Workers in protective gear at the Shanghai Hongqiao Railway Station in Shanghai.
Workers in protective gear at the Shanghai Hongqiao Railway Station in Shanghai.Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg
Nomura Holdings Inc. lowered its forecasts for China¡¯s economic growth for this year and next, citing a ¡°slow, costly and bumpy¡± reopening of the country as Covid cases surge.
This year¡¯s estimate was cut slightly to 2.8% from 2.9%, while next year¡¯s projection was lowered to 4% from 4.3%, Nomura¡¯s economists wrote in a note Thursday. The forecasts are below the median estimates of 3.3% for 2022 and 4.8% for 2023 in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
China¡¯s reopening next year could be ¡°back and forth¡± as officials may backtrack if Covid cases skyrocket, Nomura said. The investment bank¡¯s lockdown index suggests 21.1% of China¡¯s total gross domestic product is now under lockdown, up from only 9.5% at the end of October.
Nomura Cuts China¡¯s Growth Forecasts on Slow Covid Reopening
Workers in protective gear at the Shanghai Hongqiao Railway Station in Shanghai.
Workers in protective gear at the Shanghai Hongqiao Railway Station in Shanghai.Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg
Nomura Holdings Inc. lowered its forecasts for China¡¯s economic growth for this year and next, citing a ¡°slow, costly and bumpy¡± reopening of the country as Covid cases surge.
This year¡¯s estimate was cut slightly to 2.8% from 2.9%, while next year¡¯s projection was lowered to 4% from 4.3%, Nomura¡¯s economists wrote in a note Thursday. The forecasts are below the median estimates of 3.3% for 2022 and 4.8% for 2023 in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
China¡¯s reopening next year could be ¡°back and forth¡± as officials may backtrack if Covid cases skyrocket, Nomura said. The investment bank¡¯s lockdown index suggests 21.1% of China¡¯s total gross domestic product is now under lockdown, up from only 9.5% at the end of October.
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