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所跟帖: 赛昆 其实这话是黄俄“核武专家”自己说的。   2017-03-18 15:22:51  


作者: 平正   中文翻译有些其实与纽时的原意不符 2017-03-18 16:09:19  [点击:293]
注意下边这句:

"据五角大楼的最新统计,中国大陆有75到100枚洲际弹道导弹,估计仅有40到50枚能抵达美国大陆。"


从下边链接可参看纽时全文及其引文:

LINK

官方报告如下, 没提及“仅有40到50枚能抵达美国大陆”:

By Office of the Secretary of Defense:

"China’s ICBM arsenal to date
consists of approximately 75-100 ICBMs,
including the silo-based CSS-4 Mod 2 (DF-5)
and multiple independently-targetable reentry
vehicle (MIRV)-equipped Mod 3 (DF-5B); the
solid-fueled, road-mobile CSS-10 Mod 1 and
2 (DF-31 and DF-31A); and the shorter range
CSS-3 (DF-4). The CSS-10 Mod 2, with a
range in excess of 11,200 km, can reach most
locations within the continental United States.
China also is developing a new road-mobile
ICBM, the CSS-X-20 (DF-41) capable of
carrying MIRVs."

提及“仅有40到50枚能抵达美国大陆”的是学者的署名论文:

BULLETIN OF THE ATOMIC SCIENTISTS, 2016
VOL. 72, NO. 4, 205–211

Chinese nuclear forces, 2016
Hans M. Kristensen and Robert S. Norris

"Fifteen years ago, the US intelligence community
estimated that by 2015, China would have 75–100
warheads on ICBMs, primarily targeted at the United
States (CIA 2001, 3). This prediction did not come to
pass. Of China’s 50–75 ICBMs, an estimated 40–50 –
capable of carrying 60–70 warheads in total – can
target the continental United States."
最后编辑时间: 2017-03-18 16:11:45

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